SUBSub-Classes
| Sub-Class | Current | P25–P75 | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | 12mo FC | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GIS 345kV+ Gas-insulated, ≥345 kV bay | 121 | 104–138 | ▼-1 | ▼-9 | 108 | B |
GIS 138–230kV Gas-insulated, 138–230 kV | 97 | 84–110 | ▼-2 | ▼-6 | 84 | A |
AIS DT 138–230 Air-insulated, SF6 dead-tank | 74 | 65–83 | ▼-1 | ▼-9 | 64 | A |
AIS 69–138 Air-insulated, live-tank | 56 | 49–63 | ▼-3 | ▼-8 | 50 | A |
MV Recloser Distribution-class, 15–38 kV | 35 | 30–40 | ▼-2 | ▼-6 | 30 | A |
TRDGIS 345kV+ · Historical & Forecast
2022-Q1 → 2027-Q1 · weeks
SNPCurrent Snapshot
Lead Time
121wks
P25–P75: 104–138 · n=10
Δ QoQ
▼-1Δ YoY
▼-912mo FC
108 wks
Confidence
BSupplier Concentration
4active
91%top-3
3450HHI
Hitachi, Siemens Energy, GE Vernova; Mitsubishi limited US presence. SF6-free variants extend lead time.
DRVWhat's Driving Lead Time
Substation construction starts
▲w=0.82
Interconnection queue activity drove 3,200+ new substation starts in 2025 — front-loading GIS demand.
SF6 phase-out transition (EPA + EU F-gas)
▲w=0.78
OEM portfolio retooling for SF6-free dielectrics (g3, AirPlus) compressing legacy SF6 line capacity.
Aluminum & enclosure fabrication
─w=0.50
Sheet aluminum and powder-coat capacity adequate; no material constraint observed Q4.
Semiconductor & relay components
▼w=0.45
Protection-relay component lead times normalizing; numerical relays back to 14–20 week baseline.
Vacuum interrupter supply (MV)
▼w=0.40
MV vacuum bottle supply recovered; recloser lead times improving fastest in the dataset.