DEFENSIBLE LEAD TIME INTELLIGENCEv2026.Q1 · US POWER EQUIPMENT PROCUREMENT & GRID INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS
SESSION ————-—— ——:——:——ZLIVE
QOQ MOVERS · 2026-Q1
Auto 345kV▼-5wksPT 138kV▼-3wksAIS 69–138▼-3wksGSU 500kV+▼-2wksAuto 230kV▼-2wksMobile Sub▼-2wksGIS 138–230kV▼-2wksMV Recloser▼-2wksGIS 345kV+▼-1wksAIS DT 138–230▼-1wksAuto 345kV▼-5wksPT 138kV▼-3wksAIS 69–138▼-3wksGSU 500kV+▼-2wksAuto 230kV▼-2wksMobile Sub▼-2wksGIS 138–230kV▼-2wksMV Recloser▼-2wksGIS 345kV+▼-1wksAIS DT 138–230▼-1wks
PRJProject Definition
Project Name
Construction Start Date
Required In-Service Date (RIS)
GOVERNING MILESTONE: CONSTRUCTION START · 2028-11-08 — order-by dates use the earlier of construction start and RIS, since equipment must be on site before work begins.
EQPEquipment Line Items
Sub-ClassQtyReview (wks)Shipping (wks)FC LeadTotal WksOrder By (P50)Risk
230/69 kV, 150–300 MVA
951072026-10-21PAST DUE
Gas-insulated, 138–230 kV
84922027-02-03OK
Air-insulated, live-tank
50562027-10-13OK
GNTProcurement Timeline
SUB-CLASS
2026-07-29
RIS · 2029-11-08
DAYS TO ORDER
Auto 230kV
×2
TODAY
CONST
18d LATE
GIS 138–230kV
×4
TODAY
CONST
87d
AIS 69–138
×6
TODAY
CONST
339d
Bar span = P25–P75 lead time uncertainty. Solid fill = procurement window. Solid right edge = RIS date; orange marker = construction start. Order-by dates use the earlier of the two milestones, since equipment must be on site before construction begins. Recommend issuing PO no later than the P50 (center) date. Calculation: Order By = governing milestone − (12-mo forecast lead time + internal review + shipping).
IMPSchedule & Cost Impact — if not ordered by recommended date
Order delay scenario (weeks late)
Liquidated damages ($ / month)
AFUDC carrying cost ($ / month)
Projected milestone slip
74 days
2.4 months
Liquidated damages
$0
enter monthly LD
AFUDC cost
$0
enter monthly AFUDC
Total cost exposure
$0
driven by Auto 230kV
EquipmentAlready past dueSlip if ordered lateMonthsLDAFUDCCost exposure
Auto 230kV18d74d2.4$0$0$0
GIS 138–230kV0d56d1.8$0$0$0
AIS 69–1380d56d1.8$0$0$0
Slip = days already past the recommended order-by date + order delay scenario, assuming the item is on the critical path to its milestone. Project slip = worst item. Cost exposure = slip (months) × (monthly LD + monthly AFUDC). Planning estimate, not a contractual calculation.