Lead time is defined as the calendar weeks between an executed purchase order and ex-works equipment readiness. Internal procurement cycle time (specification, bid, evaluation, contracting) is excluded and modeled separately in the Schedule Calculator.

• Quarterly procurement quote aggregation from 24 contributing US investor-owned and public-power utilities (anonymized).
• OEM order-book disclosures from SEC filings, investor day decks, and earnings calls.
• EEI Transformer Procurement Working Group quarterly survey.
• DOE LPT availability tracker and IIJA grant award schedules.
• Trade press: T&D World, Transmission & Distribution Journal, S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Per sub-class, we compute the P25/P50/P75 of received quotes within the reporting quarter. P50 is reported as the central lead time; P25–P75 is reported as the band. Outliers beyond 1.5×IQR are excluded from the band but retained in the audit log.

The 12-month forecast blends a smoothed historical trajectory with forward indicators (announced OEM capacity additions, raw material futures, IIJA award velocity, interconnection queue activity). The forecast cone widens by ~40% versus the most recent historical band to reflect model uncertainty. Forecasts are not predictions of any individual contract.

Releases are quarterly. Mid-quarter intelligence notes are circulated when a category exhibits a >15% single-quarter movement or when a structural event (OEM facility commissioning, regulatory action, large utility contract) materially changes the outlook.