SUBSub-Classes
| Sub-Class | Current | P25–P75 | Δ QoQ | Δ YoY | 12mo FC | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GSU 500kV+ ≥500 kV, ≥500 MVA, generator step-up | 159 | 135–183 | ▼-2 | ▼-10 | 140 | B |
Auto 345kV 345/138 kV, 300–600 MVA | 133 | 114–152 | ▼-5 | ▼-11 | 118 | A |
Auto 230kV 230/69 kV, 150–300 MVA | 111 | 97–125 | ▼-2 | ▼-7 | 95 | A |
PT 138kV 138/13.8 kV, 28–84 MVA | 84 | 73–95 | ▼-3 | ▼-12 | 74 | A |
Mobile Sub Trailer-mounted, ≤30 MVA, 69–138 kV | 68 | 56–80 | ▼-2 | ▼-10 | 60 | B |
TRDGSU 500kV+ · Historical & Forecast
2022-Q1 → 2027-Q1 · weeks
SNPCurrent Snapshot
Lead Time
159wks
P25–P75: 135–183 · n=8
Δ QoQ
▼-2Δ YoY
▼-1012mo FC
140 wks
Confidence
BSupplier Concentration
6active
78%top-3
2650HHI
Hitachi Energy, Siemens Energy, GE Prolec dominate ≥500 kV GSU bids; one domestic mill supplies most CRGO.
DRVWhat's Driving Lead Time
GOES electrical steel availability
▲w=0.95
Domestic CRGO capacity remains <40% of US demand; mill allocation cycles still favor automotive.
Utility capex cycle (IRA + load growth)
▲w=0.88
Data-center load forecasts and IIJA/IRA grid awards driving 5-year orderbook saturation at major OEMs.
Copper wire & strip pricing
▲w=0.72
LME copper sustained above $9.5k/t; winding cost pass-through visible in Q3-Q4 quotes.
Skilled winding labor (US & EU)
▲w=0.65
Tank welding and coil winding apprenticeships lag; 2nd shift expansion gated on training pipelines.
New domestic capacity coming online
▼w=0.55
Hitachi Energy (South Boston), Prolec-GE (Shreveport), Siemens Energy (Charlotte) expansions begin shipping late-2025.
Transportation & heavy-haul permitting
─w=0.40
Rail and heavy-haul truck availability stable; permitting timelines unchanged QoQ.